[Youtube Review][Veritasium] The Bayesian Trap

(Recommended)Popular Videos : [Veritasium] The Bayesian Trap

 

This time, I will review the popular YouTube videos.

These days, even if it's good to watch on YouTube, sometimes people skip it or don't watch it if it's too long.

When you watch Youtube, do you scroll and read the comments first?

To save your busy time, why don't you check out the fun contents, summary, and empathy comments of popular YouTube videos first and watch YouTube?

(Recommended)Popular Videos : [Veritasium] The Bayesian Trap

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R13BD8qKeTg

 

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Summary Comments : [Veritasium] The Bayesian Trap

Re***********:

It was filmed in the Santa Monica Mountains near Los Angeles. The crossing shown at 3:18 is at 34.11915, -118.49708.
Follow the narrower path (Canyonback Ridge Trail) a few meters south and you get the view at 1:00.

 

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Playtime Comments : [Veritasium] The Bayesian Trap

Lu********:

Veritasium guy at 0:18:
"tested positive for..."
Literally everyone in 2020:
"Cuhronuhvaaarus?!"

Ma*****:

1:49 It usually doesn't get emphasized enough how hard it is to get a good prior. For instance, Derek's prior of just taking the incidence in the general population is probably already invalid. Why? Well, you show the symptoms of the disease, that means you are already far more likely to have the disease than joe everyman next to you.
Why is this an issue? Well, Bayes' theorem is really good at showing you the highly counterintuitive odds of something being true, you just need to know the priors. And that is a huge wild card, everything stands and falls with the prior. You can use highly biased priors to "prove" your point, you just need to convince your audience that these priors are valid (and to some extent, Derek already did this by convincingly endorsing a likely inaccurate prior).

You could argue, for instance, that human made climate change is a myth even though we have strong evidence to suggest so. You could just say, well what are the odds that us tiny puny humans can have an impact on the global scale evironment? It's infinitesimal! Just look at the size of our planet! It's HUGE! So let's just input prior p=10^-13 or something (weight of all humans / weight of the earth). I know, it's ludicrous, but try arguing against that in front of a crowd that doesn't understand the intricate details of Bayes' theorem.

That notwithstanding, Bayes is great, and it is superior to standard frequentist statistics when used correctly. However, I feel the potential to "cheat with statistics" is also far more severe with Bayes. It doesn't solve all our problems.

tldr: Always check if the prior is valid!

Edit: spelling

si**********:

9:20 VSAUCE MICHEAL HERE

Ma*************:

8:54 You broke my heart with those words..

Sh**********:

Your explanation beginning at 3:23 actually provides insight in the Raven Paradox as well. As we confirm things which aren't black or ravens, we DO get an insight into all ravens being black.

Sc****:

0:00 "Hey Vsauce, Derek here!"

Fr**********:

Do a video about Heiligenschein/Halo effect which can be nicely seen from 6:42 to 7:10 behind the camera :)

Cl***:

2:50 Beautifully explained!

Bi************:

7:30 hit home. I always thought bayesian models was more or less HOW people thought; tbf I learned about it for the first time in a language developement course. But your notion of it as problematic to someone's development or self appraisal is very insightful V.

Vi*********:

4:28 "Made an analogy to a man coming out of a cave". Or should we say an allegory? #Plato

 

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Top Comments : [Veritasium] The Bayesian Trap

Sh********:

Yes, this video inspired me to go back to school, and finish my degree. Class started today.
Thanks!
-Shawn

HA***:

0:00 Hey, this question is in my book of class 12 maths NCERT EXCERCISE 13.3 QUESTION 4,

to*******:

I sleep too much, I feel like my life slips away to those morning hours. I can’t remember the last time I saw a sunrise. I should probably change that.

Ca***********:

Dislikes from 9% of people who actually got the disease after being diagnosed positive on the test.

Pa******:

"So what do you do for a living?"
"Oh the usual, drive to an open field, walk a mile, and talk to myself for a bit."

Ar************:

love d way u mingle math with philosophy..

Ak********:

There Derek does it again, first in the 'learned helplessness' video and now here.
The quote is - “It always seems impossible until it's done.” - Nelson Mandela.
// Just Messing around.... another cheerful video that made my day. Thanks.

Al*****:

I had never seen such a good explanation! I wish my professor was like this

Th**************:

just like Ronnie Coleman said “If you always do what you’ve always done..you’ll always get what you always got”

Ow******:

Great video. Nice scenery, interesting ideas, well-spoken individual. Thanks Derek :)

Sa***********:

The turkey found that, on his first morning at the turkey farm, he was fed at 9 a.m. Being a good inductivist turkey he did not jump to conclusions. He waited until he collected a large number of observations that he was fed at 9 a.m. and made these observations under a wide range of circumstances, on Wednesdays, on Thursdays, on cold days, on warm days. Each day he added another observation statement to his list. Finally he was satisfied that he had collected a number of observation statements to inductively infer that “I am always fed at 9 a.m.”.
However on the morning of Christmas eve he was not fed but instead had his throat cut.

It doesn’t matter how many cases we list during our inductivist reasoning, nothing guarantees that the next case will lay in this inference we deducted from our observations, as the possible experiments and observations are infinite by number and type.
That's Russell's Inductivist Turkey

In***********:

"Well this can't be good." The first caveman to witness a sunset probably

Ni*************:

I had heard about "Bayesian probability" and felt like learning more about it, as I know nothing about it.


The conclusion you draw at the end is about getting accustomed to results like rejection, which is something I have often dealt with and felt bad about. It gave me a new perspective on things.


I think you are an amazing speaker and have a great way of getting worthwhile ideas across. All the best.

Da***********:

is this the same as conditional probability?

Th**:

"Our actions play a role in determining outcomes and in determining how true things actually are" - well put.

bl*********:

I heard Eliezer Yudkowsky's Rationality: From AI to Zombies is a good read on the subject

Ma**********:

Felt very nice when you asked at the end "is there anything like that you're thinking about? " :)

Ya******:

I heard the Bayesian probability is part of the newer AI development, such as the Google Deep Mind, I hope you can make a video about some recent AI break through.

77**********:

Does anyone know where this was filmed? The location looks beautiful
ANSWER: Turns out it's the Santa Monica Mountains near Los Angeles. Big thanks to Veritasium for answering!

Sh**********:

hard to find friends like Mr. Price , My friends would just steal the papers and publish it in their name .

Sn********:

Covid-19 is everywhere, youtube recommends me a video about math from 2017 ... but also about being testing positive for a disease.

Ar********:

Every single one of us has a 0.1% chance of having a disease that affects 0.1% of the population, however, if someone has the symptoms of the disease, this person would not have the same chance of having the disease than someone else that doesn't have any symptoms.
The ''prior probability'' of having the disease would only match the exact percentage of the population affected by the disease if the test was done randomly.

Ma********:

This is one of the most straightforward explanations of Bayes Theorem I've seen. 'No mucking about just got to the point.

du***:

The super skill here is hiking in a polo and not flinching at those bugs flying around your head. wow.

as**********:

Just read the book "The art of statistics" . It is brilliant.

Ta*****:

I was really worried you were going to say you have some horrible disease...

jd*********:

I've watched this video 3 times over the years, and I feel like I'm missing something with the initial 9% chance that the person has the disease example. Since the person is at the doctor, and the doctor thinks it's possible this person has the deases, shouldn't we update our prior probability from "the percentage in the population as a whole" , to "the percentage of people exhibiting symptoms of the disease" who have the disease? That would make the likelihood of testing positive and having the disease higher (probably much higher) than 9%.

O*:

I don’t know if you’re going to continue reading comments for your old videos. I am a behavioral neuroscientist, I am a biologist I am finishing my PhD. I love the topics and studying. But Academia Ask you to be very good in what you do, To know your stuff very well, To be good at writing about it and about anything else, To be good speaking in public about it, To be original and find things that nobody else has found, And you do it quickly, And it in order to do so, Do you have to be also good in breeding grounds for finding support money For your research, You have to be very good at teaching talking to students writing papers analyzing data programming software Coding. This is good. But this is a very demanding so in order to do all of this you need to be very good at organizing your time in order to have a functional life on your personal side. You have to be balanced, To keep working and at the same time having a spouse, a cat, friends, nights of beers, Vacation, Organized to keep doing your work out, And especially finding a job in the Academy if you fulfill all of this, Which many times only happens if you know and managed to keep the right sort of contacts throughout your career... And of course since Phd is not enough you have to do a PostDoc And after this perhaps you might find a decent job to keep doing this acrobatics... I think after 15 years of work I’m done and I need a change in the post coronavirus world.

Jo**********:

I recently had an experience that exemplifies how you wrapped up the video. I went to school for Computer Science, but my real passion is Aerospace Engineering. I searched for about two years to find a job, and poured through hundreds of job listings and submitted dozens of applications to find anything that would interest me more than the job I got right out of college. However, none of that statistical improbability mattered. It only took one company giving me just one chance to prove myself. Statistics mean very little when it comes to opportunities like that. Models a great and can help inform how we view the world around us, but none of our models are perfect. And if you assume that the next application, the next date, the next time you try might very well be the one that changes you life forever, you may find yourself living a one-in-a-billion life. And if it doesn't work out and you get one more rejection, you very well might still be one more attempt away from your big break.

 

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[Veritasium] We gathered comments about popular videos and looked at them in summary, including play time, and order of popularity.

It's a good video or channel, but if you're sad because it's too long, please leave a YouTube channel or video link and I'll post it on this blog.

 

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